By HASHIM B. ALRAYAH

Published: Feb 26, 2011 

Sudan is now two countries or, to be more precise, it will become two countries by July 9 when the transitional period expires.

But the game is not yet over.

During the past few weeks there were heated accusations from the opposition that the Islamist regime has failed to keep the country united. Some Sudanese are saying that the government of Omar Bahir, which came to power in a quo d'état in June 1989, has yielded to Western pressure during the signing of the 2005 peace agreement which grants the south the right to vote for unity or secession.

 

Drawn by the current uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Sudanese took to the street on Jan. 30 demanding the ouster of President Bashir. Police beat and arrested several protesters. One university student died of his wounds two days later. Though the demonstrations coincided with the announcement of initial results of southern Sudan's referendum in which some 99 percent vote for separation, it should be understood that these demonstrations were not engineered by leading opposition parties. Like in Tunisia and Egypt, the call for demonstrations has starting going up on Facebook.

"The people of Sudan will not remain silent anymore," said a Facebook group called Youth for Change. "It is about time we demand our rights and take what's ours in a peaceful demonstration that will not involve any acts of sabotage," the Group noted in its message for the public urging them to demonstrate.

Observers are saying that the opposition parties are not in a position to topple the government. They cited differences between the parties themselves and their failure to stand together on different occasions. They referred to the meeting of Sadiq Al Mahdi, former prime minister and leader of opposition National Umma Party (NUP), with President Bashir last week. The meeting took place only days following a meeting between opposition leaders. The meeting of the opposition leaders, which Mahdi attended, called for the removal of the regime. Mahdi's meeting with the president caused outrage among other opposition parties who felt betrayed by the step. The NUP defended its move saying it was not an indication of backing away from opposition's demands. However, the National Alliance, an opposition forces platform said that they would proceed with its plan to topple the government dismissing the regime's proposal to form a broad-based government. The opposition underlined that they will not "fill in the blanks" of the post-referendum Cabinet, referring to the portfolios to be vacated by southerners who would join their new independent state.

Speaking at a press conference in Khartoum on Feb.1, Farouq Abu Issa, spokesman of the Alliance and former secretary-general of the Cairo-based Arab Lawyers Association, said the current transitional constitution would be void following the end of the transitional period in July. "This requires the formation of a caretaker government according to specific constitutional and administrative arrangements and a national program to manage the economic crisis, end the problem of Darfur region and address relations between the north and the south," he said.

The government is watching the situation carefully, saying it would not let the opposition make use of the south’s secession to overthrow the regime. "We would not tolerate any move to undermine the country's security and stability," said an official source. In what analysts regard as a determination by the regime to curb any voices threatening its existence, the security authorities arrested early January, Dr. Hassan Al Turabi, regime supporter-turned foe and leader of the Congress Democratic Party. 

The opposition parties demand that dissolution of the government, formation of an interim government, organization of new elections, writing a new constitution, resolving the Darfur crisis and reversing the recent decision raising food prices.

The Sudanese presidential adviser for security affairs, Salah Gosh ruled out a repetition of events in Egypt and Tunisia, saying there is major difference given the wide support to the government in Sudan by the people.

It seems that the political parties would seize current developments including the secession of the south, the economic difficulties and the situation in Darfur, to work for regime change. With the upper ranks of the military believed to be firmly behind the president, the government will not hesitate to use force to crackdown the opposition.

A handful Sudanese I've talked to during the past few days hold mixed views about political developments in the country and stance toward the government. Some strongly blame the regime for the chronic political and economic situation facing the country. They supported calls for immediate change. Others believe that the current situation in the country requires a united internal front where all political parties work together in the interests of the people. They describe the move to topple the government as "irresponsible and serves foreign agenda."

The coming few week may witness more showdown between the government and the political opposition parties. The government seems unworried by threats from traditional opposition leaders. What will worry the government more these days is the young people who have succeeded in using social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter to make thousands took to the streets in January. 

- Hashim B. Alrayah is a Sudanese translator and journalist based in Riyadh.