General Situation during February 2013 Forecast until mid-April 2013

 

The Desert Locust situation remained worrisome during February in the winter breeding areas along both sides of the Red Sea where locust infestations continued to increase. Adults formed groups and swarms in Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia. Some of these moved into crops along the Nile River in northern Sudan, laid eggs and caused damage, while a limited number of groups and swarms moved north along the Egyptian coast where they could eventually threaten the Nile Delta. Substantial control operations were carried out by the three countries. A smaller, second generation of breeding is expected to occur along both sides of the Red Sea. Groups of adults are likely to move to the interior of Saudi Arabia where one generation of breeding can occur. Elsewhere, a few small swarms formed in the Western Sahara and moved into adjacent areas of northwest Mauritania.

 

Western Region. The locust situation remained generally calm in the region during February. Adult groups and a few small swarms formed in the southern part of Western Sahara. Some of these moved into adjacent areas of northwest Mauritania. Limited control operations were carried out in Morocco and Mauritania. Scattered mature adults were present in central Algeria and northeast Morocco. As temperatures warm up in March, low numbers of adults are likely to appear in Morocco south of the Atlas Mountains and in the northern and central Sahara in Algeria, and breed on a small scale in areas that receive rainfall. No significant developments are expected.

Central Region. Locust numbers continued to increase significantly during February from breeding along the Red Sea coastal plains in southeast Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia where hopper bands and swarms formed. Immature groups and swarms moved from northeast Sudan to the Nile Valley in northern Sudan, laying eggs, and causing damage to crops and date palms. Immature groups and a few small swarms moved north along the Red Sea coast of Egypt, nearly reaching Suez. Infestations declined in the second half of February due to control operations and migration. Elsewhere, only isolated adults were seen on the Red Sea coast in Yemen. There is a moderate risk that a few small groups and swarmlets may reach cropping areas in the Nile Valley and Delta of Egypt. A smaller second generation of breeding will occur in southeast Egypt, along the Sudan/Eritrea border and on the northern Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia. Breeding will continue along the Nile in northern Sudan where a few more swarms may appear from the northeast. Scattered adults and small groups are likely to appear in the spring breeding areas of the interior of Saudi Arabia, and breed in places that receive rainfall.

 

 Eastern Region. No locusts were reported in the region during February. Low numbers of adults are likely to appear in parts of Baluchistan in western Pakistan and southeast Iran, and breed on a small scale in areas that receive rainfall. No significant developments are likely.

 

Weather and Ecological Conditions in February 2013

Vegetation began drying out on the western side of the Red Sea during February but remained green along the coast of Saudi Arabia.

 

In the Western Region, very little rain fell in the region during February and low temperatures persisted in most areas, limiting Desert Locust migration and delaying maturation. In Mauritania, ecological conditions were generally unfavourable for breeding but there were small areas of green vegetation in Dakhlet Nouadhibou, Inchiri, Adrar and Tiris Zemmour. In Morocco, ecological conditions remained favourable for breeding in the southern part of the Western Sahara but were drying out further north as well as along the southern side of the Atlas Mountains in the Draa and Ziz-Ghris valleys. In Algeria, ecological conditions were favourable for breeding near Bechar, Adrar and Tamanrasset.

 In the Central Region, light rain fell at times during February in some areas on both sides of the Red Sea. In Sudan, vegetation progressively dried out during the month in coastal and subcoastal areas of the northeast but ecological conditions remained favourable on the southern coast between Tokar and the Eritrean border. Conditions were also favourable in adjacent areas of Eritrea on the northern coast. In Egypt, vegetation started to dry out on the southern coastal plains of the Red Sea south of Shalatyn from the second week of February onwards but remained green near Berenice and Abraaq. Ecological conditions were not favourable for breeding in coastal and subcoastal areas north of Marsa Alam. In Saudi Arabia, ecological conditions remained favourable for breeding along the northern Red Sea coastal plains between Rabigh and Umm Lajj, and on the central coast between Lith and Qunfidah. In Yemen, light rain fell at times in a few places on the Red Sea coastal plains but mainly dry conditions persisted there as well as on the Gulf of Aden coastal plains. Light to moderate rain fell in northern Oman in early February but vegetation remained generally dry.

 In the Eastern Region, light rain fell at times during February in parts of the spring breeding areas in southeastern Iran and, to a lesser extent, in western Pakistan. Consequently, ecological conditions are expected to be favourable for small-scale breeding along the southeast coast and in the Jaz Murian Basin of Iran, and in parts of the interior of Baluchistan in Pakistan.

By FAO Release