By PETE ONDENG 

The expression by South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir of his desire to have South Sudan join the East African Community (EAC) sounded to me, at first, like a good idea.

Not any more. Actually, I think it is a downright bad idea from South Sudan’s perspective.

What does South Sudan stand to gain by rushing to join the EAC?

The honest answer is: very little. South Sudan’s economy, in its current state, could be compared to an anaemic, “infant” that has just come into the world and is still heavily dependent on external life support.

There is nothing wrong with forward looking parents beginning to dream about their newborn growing up and going to college one day, but it would be downright stupid if, in their enthusiasm, those parents were to enroll the child in the college and expect him to sit for exams before he has even left the maternity ward.

I am surprised by the number of people, including at the EAC Secretariat, who have been essentially saying that the key criteria for South Sudan’s entrance into the regional bloc is its becoming an independent nation.

These sentiments portray a lack of understanding of the underlying objectives of the EAC.

To many observers, the EAC is a hazy concept that continues to be confined to lofty presidential declarations and pompous signing ceremonies that have launched numerous technical documents that have had little meaning to the average citizen.

While it is true that a lot of progress has been made toward the creation of the regional bloc, most East Africans remain uninformed about what has actually been agreed and are yet to embrace or even comprehend the benefits.

In 2010, the heads of state launched the East African Common Market for goods, labour and capital within the region, with the announcement that a common currency would be introduced by 2012 and that full political federation would take place by 2015.

Some experts argue that these plans are too ambitious because of the numerous political, social and economic challenges that are yet to be addressed.

However, the key question that needs honest debate is: Who stands to gain, and who stands to lose with the coming of the EAC?

This is the question that President Salva Kiir and his government need to consider carefully before consigning their new country to the EAC.

At its core, the EAC is about free trade, and the underlying philosophy and assumption here is that open competition is good for everyone.

On the surface, this sounds nice, but is it really true?

I am aware that arguing against free competition goes against popular economic thinking pushed by the World Bank, IMF, World Trade Organisation and other bilateral and multilateral organisations, but I put it to President Kiir that his government needs to pause and take a long-term view of the economic challenges that lie ahead of them.

South Sudan simply cannot compete with the “mature” economies that it would be joining in the EAC.

The way for South Sudan to become a “mature” economy is not via free trade.

The economic strength and maturity of South Sudan will come through direct government participation in and protection of the economy.

The Government of South Sudan needs to recognise that, by throwing its borders wide open for goods and services to be brought in from other EAC members, South Sudan will have no chance to get on its feet.

As the dust of the referendum settles, South Sudan is going to find itself in a weak and vulnerable position on many fronts.

There is no question in anybody’s mind that the new country will need a fairly protracted period of support from the international community to build up its infrastructure and institutional.

During this incubation period, the GOSS will need to determine quite early which industries are strategic for the nation, and which are not.

Once strategic and important industries are identified, the government must both encourage and protect their domestic growth in a number of ways.

These include subsidies, legal protection, import tariffs to guard against foreign competition, strong industry regulation to ensure quality, and development of infrastructure to ease manufacture, distribution, sales and use of the products.

Without a strong government hand to shepherd and protect this badly bruised and naked infant, South Sudan will be stillborn and never have the chance to grow.

Pete Ondeng is a business strategist and author of “Africa’s Moment”. peteondeng@yahoo.com